February 16, 2012--The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its February winter heating forecast. As a result of the warmer winter, EIA is projecting a continuing decline in average heating costs, except for heating oil, which would show a small increase.
This is the third consecutive monthly EIA report in which the forecast of average household expenditures for heating fuels has been lowered because of the continuing unusually warm weather for most of the nation. Average household heating oil expenditures are now expected to increase by only 1 percent this winter heating season (October 1 to March 31) compared with last winter. Natural gas and propane expenditures are projected to decline by 11 percent and 5 percent, respectively, and electricity expenditures are 4 percent lower than last winter's levels.
According to estimates from the EIA data by the National Energy Assistance Directors' Association (NEADA), average prices for the winter of 2011 versus 2012, are as follows: natural gas ($724 to $643), electricity ($961 to $918), propane ($1,817 to $1,729), and heating oil ($2300 to $2326). The average cost of home heating this winter will likely decline from $990 last winter to $905, NEADA said.
NEADA also estimated the purchasing power of LIHEAP for winter heating would show a steep decline this winter from 42.1 percent to 34 percent of the cost of home heating, and that the average LIHEAP grant would drop from $417 last winter to $308 this year.
| Est. Average % of Home Heating Purchased With LIHEAP (FY 08 - FY 12) | |||||
|
Fiscal Year
|
Heating Oil
|
Natural Gas
|
Propane
|
Electricity
|
All Fuels
|
|
2008
|
15.6%
|
38.6%
|
17.5%
|
38.7%
|
32.5%
|
|
2009
|
27.4%
|
55.5%
|
27.5%
|
52.6%
|
47.8%
|
|
2010
|
26.2%
|
64.0%
|
28.7%
|
50.5%
|
49.7%
|
|
2011
|
18.1%
|
57.6%
|
22.9%
|
43.4%
|
42.1%
|
|
2012
|
31.2%
|
47.9%
|
17.8%
|
33.6%
|
34.0%
|
| Est. Home Heating Cost (2007-08 to 2011-12) | |||||
|
Winter Heating Season
|
Heating Oil
|
Natural Gas
|
Propane
|
Electricity
|
All Fuels
|
|
2007-08
|
$2,108
|
$854
|
$1,883
|
$853
|
$1,014
|
|
2008-09
|
$1,801
|
$889
|
$1,795
|
$938
|
$1,033
|
|
2009-10
|
$1,833
|
$751
|
$1,674
|
$952
|
$968
|
|
2010-11
|
$2,300
|
$724
|
$1,817
|
$961
|
$990
|
|
2011-12
|
$2,326
|
$643
|
$1,729
|
$918
|
$905
|
| %Change: 2008-11 |
27.7%
|
-18.6%
|
1.2%
|
2.5%
|
-4.2%
|
| %Change: 2008-12 |
29.2%
|
-27.7%
|
-3.7%
|
-2.1%
|
-12.4%
|
| %Change: 2010-11 |
27.2%
|
-3.6%
|
8.5%
|
0.9%
|
2.3%
|
| %Change: 2011-12 |
1.1%
|
-12.6%
|
-5.1%
|
-4.7%
|
-9.4%
|
| Est. Households Served & Average Grant (FY 08 - FY 12) | |||
|
Fiscal Year
|
Appropriation
(in thousands) |
Households
(in thousands) |
Average
Grant |
|
2008
|
$2,570,000
|
5,798
|
$330
|
|
2009
|
$5,100,000
|
7,684
|
$494
|
|
2010
|
$5,100,000
|
8,382
|
$481
|
|
2011
|
$4,700,000
|
8,910
|
$417
|
|
2012
|
$3,471,672
|
8,910
|
$308
|
Source: EIA and NEADA
